You’ve likely experienced the difficulty of identifying all possible outcomes if you have ever had to investigate the full effect of a proposed change.
People panic in situations like this and begin to list the worst consequences. This can lead to a list of shallow, incomplete, and difficult to analyze.
The Futures Wheel is a great tool to help you do this. The Futures Wheel is a visual tool that allows you to organize your thoughts and brainstorm the potential consequences of any decision, event, or trend. This article and infographic will help you to learn more.
What is the Futures Wheel
Jerome Glenn created the Futures Wheel in 1972. Glenn is a well-respected speaker and expert on Future Studies.
Glenn, Jerome C.. “Futurizing Teaching vs. Futures Course,” Social Science Record, Syracuse University. Volume IX No. 3 Spring 1972. Reproduced with permission of Jerome Glenn
Glenn created the Futures Wheel originally to help identify potential consequences of events and trends. However, it can be used in decision-making (to select between options) or in Change Management (to determine the consequences of changes). This tool is particularly useful in the brainstorming phase of Impact analysis.
How to use the Futures Wheel
Identify the Change
You can write the change you are interested in on a piece or flipchart. This could be an event or trend, a problem, or a possible solution.
Identify direct, first-order consequences
Now think about the possible consequences of this change. Each consequence should be written in a circle. Connect it with the central idea by using an arrow. These are the “first-order” consequences.
Identify indirect, second-order consequences
Now, you need to think of all possible “second-order consequences” of each of your first-order (direct) consequences. Add them to your diagram the same way.
Next, identify the consequences of third-order, fourth-order, and vice versa.
Analyze the Implications
After you have completed the Futures Wheel levels, you will be able to see the potential direct and indirect effects of the change. These are the ones you should list.
Identify the Actions
If the potential consequences you have identified are not positive, consider how you will manage them. Our article on risk analysis offers some helpful tips. If the consequences are positive, consider what you will do to make the most of them.
Futures Wheel Example
In six weeks, Judith’s departmental budget will be reduced by 20%. To identify all possible consequences, she gathers her managers and does a Futures Wheel (see Figure 2)
Judith’s Futures Wheel
Judith now realizes that her staff reductions will have a major impact on her team. She knows she must explore all options if she wants to find a way to balance her budget. The staff reduction will not be an option.
She also recognizes that budget cuts can have indirect consequences on productivity and motivation. She must be ready to restore team morale and help people become more productive. She might also struggle to increase sales volume, so she must manage expectations accordingly.
The budget cuts have positive effects as well. There will be more opportunities to share skills and receive on-the-job training within the team.
The Key Points
The Futures Wheel is an easy-to-use tool that allows you to brainstorm the indirect and direct consequences of any decision, event, or trend.
First, identify the changes that are occurring by using the Futures Wheel. Next, create a circle and write each direct consequence of the change. Connect it with an arrow from the central circle.
Next, identify the second-order, third-order, and fourth-order consequences.
After you are done, you will have a visual map that outlines all the consequences of the problem or event. This will allow you to effectively manage the situation.